Asia – Ardern sweeps the vote

With most world central bankers slated to speechify throughout the day, Asian indices are mixed this morning, the Shenzhen Composite down 0.36% and the Nikkei up 1.16% after Japan published a ¥675 bn trade surplus in September – nearly triple August’s figure but missing expectations by a third.

The Yuan peaked briefly at 0.14954 overnight after China disappointed on its Q3 GDP with a mere 2.7% increase QoQ. Retail sales soared by 3.3% YoY in September and industrial production by 6.9%.

And the NZD is still celebrating PM Ardern’s sweeping victory in Thursday’s elections.

Europe – COVID resurges across Europe

European indices closed strongly up Friday led by the CAC40’s 2.04%.

ECB Pres Lagarde said Sunday that the zone’s recovery was threatened by Covid resurgence. The EU on Friday published a better-than-expected €21.9 bn seasonally adjusted trade surplus in August with the CPI steady at -0.3% for September. Italian data was disappointing, CPIs down a tick, the trade surplus decimated but industrial orders soaring by 15% after July’s mere 3.4%.

House prices in the UK keep rising, 5.5% YoY in October – up a half per cent from September. BoE Gov. Bailey over the weekend told the G30 that he expected the UK economy to shrink by 10% YoY in Q3, while accounting firm Deloitte reports that 62% of UK CFOs believe the economy will not show signs of recovery from the pandemic before Q2 next year.

Americas – Pelosi: no stimulus before elections

US indices were mixed Friday, the Dow adding 0.39% and the Nasdaq losing 0.36%.

Once again, continuing jobless claims contracted by a pleasing 1.1mn claims to 10.02mn but the initial figure increased to 898K.

Michigan U published a 1 point increase to 81.2 in October’s preliminary consumer sentiment while industrial production contracted by 0.6% in September and business inventories increased by 0.1% – better than the 0.4% expected.

House Speaker Pelosi told the Wall Street Journal Sunday that if a deal is not reached by Tuesday, there would not be a COVID relief bill before presidential elections. Atlanta Fed head Bostic on Sunday warned against the nation’s uneven recovery, saying he did not see inflation as a threat.

Commodities – Putin & Salman renew oil cooperation

Oil over the weekend slipped into a side trend after Baker Hughes reported a 12-rig increase in active US oil drills. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin and Said Crown Prince bin Salman agreed to continue OPEC+ coordination.

Corporate – IBM launches hitech earnings

Dutch health tech firm, Phillips (+3.62%) reported a 6% increase in sales to €5 bn and a 32% increase in earnings in Q3 thanks to a 42% increase in COVID-related equipment.

Morgan Stanley (+1.01%) on Thursday reported a 1.7% increase in revenues to $11.7 bn and a 40c increase in EPS to $1.66.

Walgreens (-0.61%), weighed down by its Boots alliance, reported a 2.3% increase in sales to $34.7 bn, but a 42.8% slide in earnings to 43c per share.

Today, expect earnings from Halliburton and IBM.

Events